Existing Home Sales Climb, Inventories Fall:

FED REPO MBS

Sales of previously occupied homes (the largest segment of all home sales) increased by 11.3% on a year-over-year basis according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales did decrease 3% from the previous month which was close to market expectations.

Inventories declined 2% to 3.48 million units, representing 8.5 months of supply at current sales rates.

“It’s in a holding pattern. When it does break out, it will break out upward, but it hasn‘t broken out yet,“ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the NAR. A separate report from the Labor Department showed that rent of primary residences is up 2.1% on a year-on-year basis. In time, rising rents should help boost sales of homes, Yun said.

Distressed home sales fell from 31% to 30%. All Cash Sales held steady at 30% suggesting continued interest by investors, and first-time home buyers accounted for 32% of the sales.

This report certainly didn’t show the housing market taking off, but it did have some bright spots which is welcome news as we continue our slow climb out of the bottom.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +22 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates slightly downward.

The MBS markets had a very choppy week where we saw intra-day pricing swings of 20 to 40 basis points each trading day. The market largely ignored virtually all of the economic data that was released. This was due to all the markets focusing intensely on Europe as Germany, France, the European Central Bank, the IMF and others met all week long in an attempt to come up with a solution to their debt woes.

The markets reacted very quickly to any leaked reports out of those meetings which added to the volatility.

Be Blessed, Hustle Hard, Dream Big! MM

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Retail Sales Strongest Rate Since February:

Headline Retail Sales for September increased at a rate of 1.1% which more than doubled market forecasts of 0.5%. The Core Retail Sales (this excludes autos) also increased more than expected.  It came in at 0.6% which was three times better than the market forecasts of 0.2%.

This is very important for the housing market because housing demand is very closely tied to consumer confidence. This brings up a very interesting point. Various consumer sentiment and consumer confidence reports have shown a recent dip in their readings. So, consumers are telling the survey takers that they feel less positive about the economy and that they are less willing to spend money. But those reports are based upon surveys.

Retail Sales are based upon real and actual sales. And clearly, consumers are spending more which means their economic outlook is positive and that is always a positive for the housing market.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -75 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates upward and landed mortgage rates at their highest levels in three weeks.

This was in reaction to a slew of much better than expected U.S. economic data. One of the main reasons that mortgage rates are so low (we hit our historical low on 09/22/11) is due to concern over a perceived weak economic recovery. So, when the market sees data that is better than expected (and even shows economic growth), MBS sell off which causes mortgage rates to rise. We received much better than expected Retail Sales.  MBS also pulled back (higher rates) as the European Union appeared to have some less-negative news. This is important because their is certainly a “flight to safety” premium in all bonds due the concerns over the Eurozone and that has been a major factor in pushing mortgage rates lower. So, the less-negative news hurt mortgage rates.

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Housing Market Update: Consumer Confidence Rises

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in September from the lowest level since November 2008 as Americans’ views of current economic conditions improved.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 57.8 this month from 55.7 in August. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 57. The group’s measure of consumer expectations six months from now dropped to the lowest level since May 1980.

The Michigan survey’s index of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, increased to 74.5 from 68.7 the prior month.

This is very important to the housing industry because it it not interest rates but the consumer’s outlook on the economy that drives demand for housing.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -68 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates higher from last Friday to the prior Friday.  Mortgage rates were pressured due to some inflationary economic news.  Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index showed increases which is inflationary and mortgage rates do not react well to any inflationary data.  We also saw better than expected Consumer Sentiment which is also usually bad for mortgage rates.

The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week.  They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages.  I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date	Time	Economic Release
19-Sep	10:00	NAHB Housing Market Index
19-Sep	10:30	Barack Obama Press Conference
20-Sep	8:30	Building Permits (MoM)
20-Sep	8:30	Housing Starts (MoM)
21-Sep	7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications
21-Sep	10:00	Existing Home Sales (MoM)
21-Sep	10:00	Existing Home Sales Change
21-Sep	10:30	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
21-Sep	14:15	Fed Interest Rate Decision
21-Sep	14:15	Fed’s Press Conference
22-Sep	8:30	Continuing Jobless Claims
22-Sep	8:30	Initial Jobless Claims
22-Sep	10:00	Housing Price Index (MoM)
22-Sep	10:00	Leading Indicators (MoM)

It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets.  Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.

Mortgage Delinquency Rates Decline:

You would think by the barrage of negative news reports that just about every other home was going into foreclosure.  Certainly this is not the case. In fact, the housing market has stabilized in the past six months.  The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the percentage of homeowners that were behind at least one monthly payment fell from 9.1% in the third quarter to 8.2% in the fourth quarter.  Also, the 2010 delinquency rate fell from over 10% in the beginning of the year to 8.2% at the end of the year.

The 2% drop in mortgage delinquencies follows the recent drop in the Unemployment Rate and the steady increase in Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence.  These are significant signs that the housing market is closing in on a true market equilibrium.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +39 basis points last week which caused 30 year fixed rates to move lower after reaching their highest levels of 2011 in the prior week. The economic data such as PPI and CPI showed inflationary pressures that consumers pay  – which is usually bad for mortgage rates. But the geo-political concerns over continued tensions in the Middle East, specifically the news stories of the Iranian War Ships requesting access to the Suez Canal, caused traders to move their funds into the safety of bonds which temporarily helped mortgage rates.

 

Existing Home Sales Jump Again:

Despite bad weather, U.S. home sales jumped more than expected in December.  Sales of previously occupied homes soared 12.3 percent last month which far surpassed national forecasts of an increase of only 4.5%.  This marks the second straight month of significant gains in sales.  In November, Existing Home Sales surged 6.1%.  The national median home price in December was $169,300 which was only 0.2% lower than levels a year ago.  This is important to note because 36% of homes sold in December where under the “distressed” category.  And even though this is a larger than normal percentage of sales, the national median home price barely moved.  In fact, it actually increased in some ares such as the Midwest (+3.3%).

In other news, Housing Starts decreased from 553K to 529K.  While the media has had a field day of reporting this as bad news…it is actually good news!  The number one reason that the housing industry fell was over supply.  And with supply levels still above where they need to be, any addition to those levels (for example by building even more homes) is not a good idea.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -54BPS from Tuesday’s open (Monday was closed due to the holiday) to Friday’s close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher.  MBS generally trade in the opposite direction of positive economic news.  And last week we had a lot of positive economic news with strong results from Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Economic Indicators and more.

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Housing Starts Rise:

U.S. Housing starts rose more than expected in November. The Commerce Department said that housing starts rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000 units.  They also revised October’s numbers upward to a 534,000 unit pace, it was originally reported at 519,000 units.

Ground breaking for new homes last month was lifted by a 6.9 percent rise in single-family home construction which continues to shows strength.  The multi-family sector continues to struggle and fell 9.1 percent.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +12 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to move sideways from the previous week.  This was the first week out of the last seven where pricing improved.  However, it was a bumpy ride.  MBS reached their worst levels on Wednesday which drove 30 year fixed rates to their highest levels since last May.  We clawed our way back as the 10 year Treasury started to rally on very light volumes which skewed the rally somewhat.