Consumer Sentiment Best Levels in 4 Years:


Consumer sentiment

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than four years in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment improved to 77.8 from 76.4 in April, topping forecasts for 76.2. It was the highest level since January 2008.

Despite the recent slowdown in job growth, nearly twice as many consumers reported hearing about new job gains than said they had heard about recent job losses, the survey said.

The data suggests that either more positive numbers on the labor market will be seen soon, or that consumers have ratcheted up their expectations too high, survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

Housing demand is very closely tied to Consumer Sentiment reading, so this is more great news to go along with fantastic mortgage rates as the busy purchase season ramps up.

What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -11 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which caused mortgage rates to increase slightly from the beginning of the week.  However, they remained near the best levels of 2012.

The highest rates of the week were on Friday and the lowest rates of the week were on Tuesday.

MBS were pressured lower (higher rates) on better than expected U.S. economic news.  The Mortgage Industry Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment were all better than market expectations.

However, MBS also received a lot of support with strong demand for the 30 year U.S. Treasury Bond and heightened concern over the future of Europe.  This concern caused U.S. based bonds such as mortgage backed securities to be in high demand as a safe way to park your money.

S&P Indices to Host Teleconference on U.S. Residential Home Prices Speakers to Include Profs Robert Shiller and Karl Case and Dr. David Blitzer


English: 2011 Update of the famous figure of R...

Who:
Dr. David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee, S&P Indices
Prof. Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics, Yale University Prof. Karl Case, Professor of Economics Emeritus at Wellesley College and Founding Partner of Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, Inc.

What:
A discussion on the current state of the U.S. residential housing market, as well as the potential for a stronger year for housing in 2012. No RSVP Required.

The December 2011 data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices is set to be released publicly at 9am EST on Tuesday, February 28th. Fourth quarter results for the S&P/Case-Shiller National Composite Index, which represents home prices from all 9 U.S. Census Divisions, will also be released.

When/Where:
Tuesday, February 28th at 10:00 a.m. EST; Live Teleconference.  Details can be found below.

Live-Dial-In-Numbers:
US/Canada Toll Free: 1-866-803-2143; US/Canada/All Others Toll: 1-210-795-1098
UK Toll Free: 0800-279-3953; UK Toll: 44-20-7108-6248

Conference ID#: 6172498; Passcode: SPCIQ

To View the Slide Presentation

URL: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join
Conference Name: PH6172498; Passcode: SPCIQ

Participants can also join the event directly by clicking here:https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?i=PH6172498&p=SPCIQ&t=c

Live Streaming (Audio Only)
URL: http://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=405855&s=1&k=CA9E708F692822CD8EDBCDA66BB04604

Replay Information:
U.S./Canada toll free #: 1-866-417-5769; U.S./Canada/All others toll #: 1-203-369-0737
Replays will expire on Tuesday, March 6, 2012

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Replay will expire on Thursday, March 29, 2012

To access the Net replay of this call, all parties may join at:

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Consumer Sentiment Moves Off Of Highs:


English: Chart of the seasonal US unemployment...

Americans turned less optimistic about the economy in early February on worries about falling income even as their outlook on the jobs market rose to a record high, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell back in February with a preliminary score of 72.5 that is 2.5 pts lower than January’s score of 75.

Current conditions, and more precisely a negative tone towards current finances, was the heaviest drag. Even though optimism towards the job market kept up, the CSI was unable to hang on to sentiment expressed last month. Market expectations averaged to 74.5.

The optimism in their job outlook is encouraging though and is certainly reflective of the steady string of better than expected Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and the recent decline in the national Unemployment Rate.  As these trends in lower Unemployment continue, look for the Consumer Sentiment to regain some ground.

What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -26 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates higher on a week-over-week basis.  That also marked a -68 basis point drop in MBS pricing from our all time high on 02/02/12.

Mortgage backed securities (and therefore mortgage rates) moved sideways during the week with only minor movements in reaction to the 10 year and 30 year U.S. Treasury auctions.  But MBS did sell off on Friday on news that Greece would come through with another austerity package that would qualify them for additional bailout funds.

The Greek story has been an important one for mortgage rates.  Mortgage rates are artificially too low due to increased demand for U.S. bonds as a pure “safety play” against a European financial collapse.  A default by Greece would start a “domino effect” of other countries defaults too.  So, any positive news that a default is postponed will cause our rates to increase.

Today? 

Fed Releases Orders Related to Banks in Mortgage Settlement

The Federal Reserve Board released today the orders related to the previously announced monetary sanctions against five banking organizations for unsafe and unsound processes and practices in residential mortgage loan servicing and processing. The Board reached an agreement in principle with these organizations for monetary sanctions totaling $766.5 million on February 9, 2012.
ABA: Statement on Proposed Bank Tax
“The banking industry strongly opposes the $61 billion bank tax included in President Obama’s budget proposal. Despite claims to the contrary, the facts on TARP are very clear: Taxpayers have profited $13 billion from their investments in banks through the program and Treasury predicts they will see a lifetime positive return of more than $20 billion. Given that non-bank programs are responsible for all of TARP’s losses, this would simply be an arbitrary tax with no regard to where losses actually occurred.
Related articles

Refinance Applications Surge 26.4% as Rates Set New Lows


Mortgage applications jumped 23.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended January 13, 2012.  The increase in the Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume maintained by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reflected improvements in both the purchase and refinance business following the traditionally slow Christmas and New Year holiday period.  On an unadjusted basis the index increased 38.1 percent.

The Refinance Index increased 26.4 percent from the week ended January 6 to its highest point since August 8, 2011.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 10.3 percent, returning to pre-holiday levels.  The unadjusted Purchase Index was up 28.4 percent from the previous week and was 2.2 percent higher than during the same week in 2011.

The four-week moving average for each index also increased; the Composite Index increased by 5.99 percent, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index by 1.96 percent and the Refinance Index by 7.0 percent.

Refinancing took an 82.2 percent share of all application activity, up from 80.8 percent the previous week and the highest share since October 22, 2010.  Applications for adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) constituted represented a 5.6 percent share of applications, up two basis points from the previous week.

Interest rates dropped last week due to continuing anxieties regarding the fragile economic situation in Europe,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.  “With mortgage rates reaching new lows, refinance volume jumped and MBA’s refinance index reached its highest level in the last six months.  Purchase activity also increased as buyers returned to the market after the holiday season.”

With the exception of jumbo loans (with balances over $417,500) interest rates continued their downward trend. Three of the rates, in fact, hit the lowest level in the history of the MBA applications survey.  The jumbo rate – for 30-year fixed-rate (FRM) loans – increased to 4.40 percent from 4.34 percent with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.47 point.  The effective rate also increased.

Thirty-year FRM with conforming (under $417,500) balances hit a new low, decreasing to 4.06 percent with 0.48 point from 4.11 percent with 0.41 point. The effective rate also decreased.

Rates for FHA guaranteed 30-year FRM were at 3.91 percent with 0.59 point, the lowest FHA rate in the history of MBA’s application survey, down from 3.96 percent with 0.72 point.  The effective rate also decreased from the previous week.

The third all-time low is the 3.33 percent rate with 0.39 point for the 15-year FRM.  This was a drop from 3.40 percent with 0.37 point rate the previous week.  The effective rate also decreased.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs was unchanged at the record low 2.90 percent established the previous week.  Points decreased to 0.45 from 0.49.   The effective rate also decreased from last week.

All rates quoted are for 80 percent loan-to-value originations and points include the application fee.

 MBA’s covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

Pending Home Sales Hit 19 Month High:


The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes in November rose to the highest level in a year and a half. The best reading on pending homes sales since a federal home-buying tax credit expired appeared to encourage traders on Wall Street.
The Realtors group said Thursday that its index of sales agreements jumped 7.3 percent last month to a reading of 100.1. A reading of 100 is considered healthy. The last time the index was that high was in April 2010, one month before the tax credit expired.

Contract signings usually indicate where the housing market is headed. There’s a one- to two-month lag between a signed contract and a completed deal.

Homes are the most affordable they’ve been in decades. Long-term mortgage rates are at historic lows and prices in most metro areas have tumbled since late 2006.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +95 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower.

We had much better than expected U.S. economic data.  Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, and the Chicago PMI were all very strong.

Normally, these type of strong readings would cause bonds to sell off and your mortgage rates to rise.  But last week was a holiday shortened week that saw very low volumes.

Traders simply “parked” their funds into the safe-haven of bonds over the holiday week which increased demand for bonds and temporarily lowered mortgage rates.

How To Calculate ROI For Real Estate Investments:


English: Return on Investment analysis graph

ROI Analysis Graph

Return on investment, we’ve all heard it… or as most of us, known as ROI, is an accounting term that indicates the percentage of invested money returned to an investor after the deduction of associated costs. For the non-accountant, this may sound confusing, but the formula may be simply stated as follows:

{Investment Gain – Investment Cost} / Cost of Investment = ROI

But while the above equation seems easy enough to calculate, a number of variables including repair and maintenance expenses and methods of figuring leverage – the amount of money with interest borrowed to make the initial investment – come into play, which can affect ROI numbers.

The article below explains the two methods by which ROI calculations are made:

The Cost Method and the Out of Pocket Method

The Cost Method

The cost method calculates ROI by dividing the equity by all costs.

As an example, assume a real estate property was bought for $100,000. After repairs and rehab of the property, which costs investors an additional $50,000, the property is then valued at $200,000, making the investors’ equity position in the property 200,000 – (100,000 + 50,000) = $50,000.

The cost method requires the dividing of the equity position by all the costs related to the purchase, repairs and rehab of the property.

ROI, in this instance, is .33 % – $50,000 divided by $150,000.

The Out of Pocket Method

The out of pocket method is preferred by real estate investors because of higher ROI results.

Using the numbers from the example above, assume the same property was purchased for the same price, but this time the purchase was financed with a loan and a down payment of $20,000. Out of pocket expense is therefore only $20,000, plus $50,000 for repairs and rehab, for a total out of pocket expense of $70,000. With the value of the property at $200,000, the equity position is $130,000.

The ROI, in this case, is .65 % – $130,000 divided by $200,000. The result is just one percent less than double the first example. The difference, of course, is attributable to the loan – leverage as a means of increasing ROI.

Equity Is Not Cash 

Before the ROI, cited above, may be realized in actual cash profits, the properties must be sold. Often, a property will not sell at its market value. Frequently, a real estate deal will be consummated at below the initial asking price, reducing the final ROI calculation for that property. Keep in mind, also, that there are costs associated with selling a real estate property – again, there may be expenses needed for repairs, painting or landscaping. The costs of advertising the property should also be added up, along with appraisal costs and the commission to the real estate broker.

Both advertising and commission expenses may be negotiated with the service provider. Real estate developers, with more than one property to advertise and sell, are in a better position to negotiate favorable rates with media outlets and brokers. ROI on multiple sales, however, with varying costs for advertising, commission, financing and construction present complex accounting issues that are best handled by an accountant.

Property Cash Flow

An investor may have $30,000 in equity in a commercial rental property for which he paid $10,000 for an ROI of 300%. The property also yields $500 a month in rentals, for a total of $6,000 annually. That’s a 60% ROI on the property’s cash flow – $6000 divided by the $10,000 cost of investment.

Complications in Calculating ROI

Complications in calculating ROI can occur when a real estate property is refinanced, or a second mortgage is taken out. Interest on a second, or refinanced, loan may increase, and loan fees may be charged, both of which can reduce the ROI, when the new numbers are used in the ROI equation. There may also be an increase in maintenance costs and property taxes, and an increase in utility rates if the owner of a residential rental or commercial property pays these expenses.

Complex calculations may also be required for property bought with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with a variable escalating rate charged annually through the duration of the loan.

The Bottom Line

Calculating ROI on real estate can be simple or complex, depending on all the variables mentioned above. In a robust economy, real estate investments, both residential and commercial, have proven to be very profitable. Even in a recessionary economy, when prices fall and cash is scarce, many bargains in real estate are available for investors with the money to invest. When the economy recovers, as it invariably does, many investors will reap a handsome profit.

For income tax or capital gains tax purposes, however, real estate property owners are urged to get professional tax advice from a reliable source before filing. Property tax is another factor in the equation when calculating return – if a property owner believes a property tax assessment is too high, in most cases, the assessment may be challenged and often a judgment is made in favor of the challenger.

Private Sector Sees Job Growth:


Unemployment rate in Europe (UE) and United St...

levels last week. The ADP Private Payroll report continued to show gains in hiring in the private sector. Their monthly gauge came in at 110K which was much better than market expectations of 101K.

In a separate report, the national Unemployment Rate fell from 9.1% to 9.0%.  The total non-farm payroll gains were 80K which was below market expectations. However, the prior period was revised upward significantly.

Bright spots: Professional and business services up 562K in 2011. Hotel and restaurants up 344K this year. Health Care up 313K for the year. Retail Trade up 156K this year. And mining jobs are up 152K during the year.

What’s not doing well? Construction, government, financial services, insurance and real estate. Alas, new homes rose in September after four straight monthly declines.

Obviously, housing demand is very closely tied to employment levels. While employment levels still have a long way to go, there is some improvement which is a positive for housing.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +12 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower. This reversed the recent trend of week after week of higher rates.
We had some decent economic data such as better than expected unemployment levels which would normally drive mortgage rates upward.  But fears and concerns over Greece and the European Union caused investors to pour money into bonds which temporarily pushed mortgage rates downward.
Previously, Germany and France had worked out a package deal with the rest of the EU members to bailout Greece.  But last week, the Prime Minister of Greece stated that he wanted the Greek citizens to have a vote on if they should accept the bailout.  If that did happen, there is no way that the citizens would vote for approval and essentially sink the deal.  
Now, we understand that the Prime Minister of Greece has stated that he will step down and that the new government will approve the deal without a public vote. It is amazing how one little country can impact rates so much.

The FHFA Foreclosure Prevention Program Expanded


Seal of the United States Federal Housing Fina...

The Obama administration announced Monday it is making a number of changes to its Home Affordable Refinance Program to help more struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.

So far, eligibility requirements for HARP have been limited to homeowners who have been making on-time mortgage payments but have been unable to refinance at a lower rate due to declining home values. Under the new plan, the Federal Housing Finance Agency would expand eligibility requirements so homeowners with little to no equity in their homes would be eligible to switch to a lower rate.

More specifically, the plan would eliminate the current 125 percent loan-to-value ceiling for fixed-rate mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; waive certain representations and warranties that lenders commit to in making loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie; eliminate the need for new property appraisals in some refinancing transactions; and extend the end-date for the program from June 2012 to Dec. 31, 2013.

The exact pricing details of the change will not be published until mid-November, and refinancing under the new terms will not start until December at the earliest. Homeowners with loans that exceed the current limit of 125 percent of the property’s value will not be eligible to refinance until early 2012.

The administration says the changes will help several million more families while helping to strengthen the economy.

I have also heard that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to submit a list of legislative recommendations to Congress as early as this week on possible fixes to the housing market.

Employment Picture Improving And Pressured MBS


United States mean duration of unemployment 19...

While unemployment levels will continue to be a major concern and a drag on our economy, several reports showed some improvement last week. The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, however economists are focusing on the improvement in the non-farm payroll data.

“This is the single biggest factor in housing. Regardless of interest rates – people simply don’t purchase homes when they are unemployed or are concerned about their employment picture. This is why the following data is welcome news for the housing industry.”

The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, however economists are focusing on the improvement in the non-farm payroll data.

Non-farm Payrolls jumped up to 103K in September, from the revised previous month’s result of 57K, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. The results considerably exceeded forecasts of 73K growth. The change in total non-farm Payroll employment for July was also revised upward from 85K to 127K.

Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% drop in August. On an annual basis Average Hourly Earnings remained flat at 1.9% for the second consecutive month in September.

Average Weekly Hours increased to 34.3 in September from 34.2 in August, despite forecasts of remaining at the same level.

In a separate report, the ADP Private Payroll data which measures U.S. non-farm private business sector hirings increased by 91K in September, after rising 89K in August. This was higher than market forecasts of only a 75K increase.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -130 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates upward. This was in reaction to a slew of much better than expected U.S. economic data.

“One of the main reasons that mortgage rates are so low (we hit our historical low on 09/22/11) is due to concern over a perceived weak economic recovery. So, when the market sees data that is better than expected (and even shows economic growth), MBS sell off which causes mortgage rates to rise.”

We received much better than expected news out of both the manufacturing and servicing sectors with strong ISM data. The improvement in the non-farm and private payroll data also pressured MBS.

What to Watch Out For This Week:

The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date Economic Event
9-Oct Columbus Day
11-Oct IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM)
11-Oct FOMC Minutes
12-Oct MBA Mortgage Applications
13-Oct Continuing Jobless Claims
13-Oct Initial Jobless Claims
13-Oct Trade Balance
13-Oct EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
13-Oct Monthly Budget Statement
14-Oct Export Price Index (MoM)
14-Oct Import Price Index (MoM)
14-Oct Import Price Index (YoY)
14-Oct Retail Sales (MoM)
14-Oct Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
14-Oct Reuters/MI Consumer Sentiment
14-Oct Business Inventories

It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities that are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.