S&P Indices to Host Teleconference on U.S. Residential Home Prices Speakers to Include Profs Robert Shiller and Karl Case and Dr. David Blitzer


English: 2011 Update of the famous figure of R...

Who:
Dr. David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee, S&P Indices
Prof. Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics, Yale University Prof. Karl Case, Professor of Economics Emeritus at Wellesley College and Founding Partner of Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, Inc.

What:
A discussion on the current state of the U.S. residential housing market, as well as the potential for a stronger year for housing in 2012. No RSVP Required.

The December 2011 data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices is set to be released publicly at 9am EST on Tuesday, February 28th. Fourth quarter results for the S&P/Case-Shiller National Composite Index, which represents home prices from all 9 U.S. Census Divisions, will also be released.

When/Where:
Tuesday, February 28th at 10:00 a.m. EST; Live Teleconference.  Details can be found below.

Live-Dial-In-Numbers:
US/Canada Toll Free: 1-866-803-2143; US/Canada/All Others Toll: 1-210-795-1098
UK Toll Free: 0800-279-3953; UK Toll: 44-20-7108-6248

Conference ID#: 6172498; Passcode: SPCIQ

To View the Slide Presentation

URL: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join
Conference Name: PH6172498; Passcode: SPCIQ

Participants can also join the event directly by clicking here:https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?i=PH6172498&p=SPCIQ&t=c

Live Streaming (Audio Only)
URL: http://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=405855&s=1&k=CA9E708F692822CD8EDBCDA66BB04604

Replay Information:
U.S./Canada toll free #: 1-866-417-5769; U.S./Canada/All others toll #: 1-203-369-0737
Replays will expire on Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Replay Web Streaming: (Slides & Audio)
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Replay will expire on Thursday, March 29, 2012

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Foreclosures Numbers With Big Drop, Reaching 2007 Levels


Half million dollar house in Salinas, Californ...

During 2011, one in every 69 homes received a foreclosure filing and 804,000 homes were repossessed — compared to 1.05 million homes that were repossessed during the foreclosure crisis peak in 2010. Foreclosure filings posted a 33 percent drop in 2011, falling to their lowest levels since 2007, RealtyTrac reports.

Foreclosures have plagued many communities, putting downward pressure on overall home prices. In the past five years, more than 4 million homes have been lost to foreclosure.

So is the worst finally over for the housing market?

Not yet, analysts say. Banks took more time to process foreclosures last year, which explains some of the declines, housing analysts note. In fact, the average process time for a foreclosure rose to 348 days in the fourth quarter, up from 305 days one year prior.

The RealtyTrac CEO says that while he expects foreclosures to increase in 2012, he also expects foreclosures to  stay well below the 2010 peak. Refinancing programs, such as the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program, are helping more borrowers lower their payments and avoid foreclosure, although not every homeowner will qualify for these programs.

The biggest problems with foreclosures remains centered in certain areas, particularly where investors helped drive up home prices during the housing boom. For example, Nevada remains the No. 1 foreclosure hot-spot, in which one out of every 16 households received some kind of default notice during 2011. Arizona and California also are continuing to face some of the highest foreclosure rates in the country too, according to RealtyTrac data.

Jobs Data Points The Way To Stronger Housing:


English: Chart 2. Persons not in the labor for...

Real Estate used to be about location, location, location. Now it is most certainly about jobs, jobs, jobs.

We received some welcome news on the jobs front last week:

The private sector added a seasonally adjusted 325,000 jobs during the month, up from 204,000 in November, payroll-processing firm ADP said:

It marked the biggest monthly gain since December 2010, and was stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were forecasting a gain of 180,000 jobs for the month.  And the great news is that half of the gains were made by small business (companies with fewer than 50 employees).

Headline National Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.5%:

Growth in manufacturing jobs helped offset a loss in government positions, while wages edged higher and the length of the work week also lengthened a bit. Job gains came from a variety of quarters: Transportation and warehousing surged by 50,000, the couriers and message industry rose 42,000, and retail added 28,000. Manufacturing grew by 23,000 and the hospitality industry continued its brisk pace, adding 24,000 jobs in December and 230,000 over the past year at food and drinking establishments.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Growth in manufacturing jobs helped offset a loss in government positions, while wages edged higher and the length of the work week also lengthened a bit. Job gains came from a variety of quarters: Transportation and warehousing surged by 50,000, the couriers and message industry rose 42,000, and retail added 28,000. Manufacturing grew by 23,000 and the hospitality industry continued its brisk pace, adding 24,000 jobs in December and 230,000 over the past year at food and drinking establishments.

Pending Home Sales Hit 19 Month High:


The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes in November rose to the highest level in a year and a half. The best reading on pending homes sales since a federal home-buying tax credit expired appeared to encourage traders on Wall Street.
The Realtors group said Thursday that its index of sales agreements jumped 7.3 percent last month to a reading of 100.1. A reading of 100 is considered healthy. The last time the index was that high was in April 2010, one month before the tax credit expired.

Contract signings usually indicate where the housing market is headed. There’s a one- to two-month lag between a signed contract and a completed deal.

Homes are the most affordable they’ve been in decades. Long-term mortgage rates are at historic lows and prices in most metro areas have tumbled since late 2006.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +95 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower.

We had much better than expected U.S. economic data.  Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, and the Chicago PMI were all very strong.

Normally, these type of strong readings would cause bonds to sell off and your mortgage rates to rise.  But last week was a holiday shortened week that saw very low volumes.

Traders simply “parked” their funds into the safe-haven of bonds over the holiday week which increased demand for bonds and temporarily lowered mortgage rates.

How To Calculate ROI For Real Estate Investments:


English: Return on Investment analysis graph

ROI Analysis Graph

Return on investment, we’ve all heard it… or as most of us, known as ROI, is an accounting term that indicates the percentage of invested money returned to an investor after the deduction of associated costs. For the non-accountant, this may sound confusing, but the formula may be simply stated as follows:

{Investment Gain – Investment Cost} / Cost of Investment = ROI

But while the above equation seems easy enough to calculate, a number of variables including repair and maintenance expenses and methods of figuring leverage – the amount of money with interest borrowed to make the initial investment – come into play, which can affect ROI numbers.

The article below explains the two methods by which ROI calculations are made:

The Cost Method and the Out of Pocket Method

The Cost Method

The cost method calculates ROI by dividing the equity by all costs.

As an example, assume a real estate property was bought for $100,000. After repairs and rehab of the property, which costs investors an additional $50,000, the property is then valued at $200,000, making the investors’ equity position in the property 200,000 – (100,000 + 50,000) = $50,000.

The cost method requires the dividing of the equity position by all the costs related to the purchase, repairs and rehab of the property.

ROI, in this instance, is .33 % – $50,000 divided by $150,000.

The Out of Pocket Method

The out of pocket method is preferred by real estate investors because of higher ROI results.

Using the numbers from the example above, assume the same property was purchased for the same price, but this time the purchase was financed with a loan and a down payment of $20,000. Out of pocket expense is therefore only $20,000, plus $50,000 for repairs and rehab, for a total out of pocket expense of $70,000. With the value of the property at $200,000, the equity position is $130,000.

The ROI, in this case, is .65 % – $130,000 divided by $200,000. The result is just one percent less than double the first example. The difference, of course, is attributable to the loan – leverage as a means of increasing ROI.

Equity Is Not Cash 

Before the ROI, cited above, may be realized in actual cash profits, the properties must be sold. Often, a property will not sell at its market value. Frequently, a real estate deal will be consummated at below the initial asking price, reducing the final ROI calculation for that property. Keep in mind, also, that there are costs associated with selling a real estate property – again, there may be expenses needed for repairs, painting or landscaping. The costs of advertising the property should also be added up, along with appraisal costs and the commission to the real estate broker.

Both advertising and commission expenses may be negotiated with the service provider. Real estate developers, with more than one property to advertise and sell, are in a better position to negotiate favorable rates with media outlets and brokers. ROI on multiple sales, however, with varying costs for advertising, commission, financing and construction present complex accounting issues that are best handled by an accountant.

Property Cash Flow

An investor may have $30,000 in equity in a commercial rental property for which he paid $10,000 for an ROI of 300%. The property also yields $500 a month in rentals, for a total of $6,000 annually. That’s a 60% ROI on the property’s cash flow – $6000 divided by the $10,000 cost of investment.

Complications in Calculating ROI

Complications in calculating ROI can occur when a real estate property is refinanced, or a second mortgage is taken out. Interest on a second, or refinanced, loan may increase, and loan fees may be charged, both of which can reduce the ROI, when the new numbers are used in the ROI equation. There may also be an increase in maintenance costs and property taxes, and an increase in utility rates if the owner of a residential rental or commercial property pays these expenses.

Complex calculations may also be required for property bought with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with a variable escalating rate charged annually through the duration of the loan.

The Bottom Line

Calculating ROI on real estate can be simple or complex, depending on all the variables mentioned above. In a robust economy, real estate investments, both residential and commercial, have proven to be very profitable. Even in a recessionary economy, when prices fall and cash is scarce, many bargains in real estate are available for investors with the money to invest. When the economy recovers, as it invariably does, many investors will reap a handsome profit.

For income tax or capital gains tax purposes, however, real estate property owners are urged to get professional tax advice from a reliable source before filing. Property tax is another factor in the equation when calculating return – if a property owner believes a property tax assessment is too high, in most cases, the assessment may be challenged and often a judgment is made in favor of the challenger.

Pending Home Sales Pop:


Pending Home Sales Pop:

Potential home buyers came out of the woodwork in October, signing contracts to buy existing homes at a higher-than expected pace.

Pending home sales jumped 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors, with the biggest gains in the Midwest, up 24 percent. The Northeast also saw sizable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.

“Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows, and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years,” said Realtor chief economist Lawrence Yun. “We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions.”

This data continues the string of positive housing data with New Home Sales up 1.3% on a monthly basis and Existing Home Sales up 13.5% on a yearly basis.

What Happened to Rates Last Week With Today’s Analysis:

The Unemployment Rate dropped from 9.0% to 8.6%. But the real story is the Non-Farm Payroll data. It did come in close to expectations but the September Number was revised upward from 158K to 210K. Overall, the Unemployment Data is slightly bearish (bad) for MBS. The markets will now focus on Europe for the rest of the day.

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +58 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower. MBS traded in a very tight range for the week. We received much better than expected economic data which normally pressures mortgage rates. Pending Home Sales, Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales, and Unemployment data all surpassed the market expectations and put to bed the concept of a “double-dip” recession for the United States. MBS made all of their weekly gains on Friday afternoon. This gave consumers the best mortgage rates of the week. This was the result of continued concern over the European debt crisis and traders seeking to park their money in the safety of U.S. bonds over the weekend.

Weekly Rate Watch & Housing Update: Existing Home Sales Up Strongly


Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.

Total Existing Home Sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.

Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained 178 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates much lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates moved lower in response to the Fed‘s announcement that they would move from purchasing shorter term Treasuries to buying longer term Treasuries. They also announced that they would purchase more mortgage backed securities with the principal that they are receiving on their current mortgage backed security holdings. The best interest rates were on Thursday afternoon.  On Friday, mortgage rates started to climb back up from their lows.

What to Watch Out For This Week:

The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date        Time Economic Event
26-Sep 10:00 New Home Sales (MoM)
26-Sep 10:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)
27-Sep 9:00 Consumer Confidence
27-Sep 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
27-Sep 10:00 Fed’s Lockhart speech
27-Sep 12:30 MBA Mortgage Applications
28-Sep 7:00 Durable Goods Orders
28-Sep 8:30 Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
28-Sep 8:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
28-Sep 10:30 Continuing Jobless Claims
29-Sep 8:30 Gross Domestic Product Annualized
29-Sep 8:30 GDP Price Index
29-Sep 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
29-Sep 8:30 Real Pers. Consumption Exp. (QoQ)
29-Sep 8:30 Pending Home Sales (MoM)
29-Sep 10:00 Core Pers. Expenditure – Price Index (MoM)
30-Sep 8:30 Core Pers. Expenditure – Prices Index (YoY)
30-Sep 8:30 Pers. Consumption Exp – Price Index (YoY)
30-Sep 8:30 Pers. Consumption Expenditures (MoM)
30-Sep 8:30 Personal Income (MoM)
30-Sep 8:30 Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
30-Sep 9:45 Reuters/MI Consumer Sentiment Index
30-Sep 9:55 Fed’s Bullard speech

It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.

Related articles:

5 Tips For Real Estate Pro’s To Get To Icon Status


Real Estate = Big Money

As you can tell this post is geared towards those already in the field and I wanted to cover something that is asked time and time again by employees, affiliates and colleagues. As a real estate agent, you may not automatically think of yourself as an entrepreneur, but really, that’s what you are!  You’re building your brand, clientele and entire livelihood from the ground up.  While your business is similar to others in the real estate field, it’s up to you to establish yourself as a legit business and bring growth and success; and that’s a large task!

So, what are some of the key steps you can take to really set yourself up as a solid business, a real estate expert or even an icon in the field?

Now, you may think, “Okay, I can see myself as an entrepreneur, but an icon?  I’m not so sure…”  We’re all aware that to have a dynamic business means to constantly be pushing yourself to continual growth; so aiming for the status of icon in your real estate market or even on a national level can be just the thing to urge you to constantly strive for more.

Does this seem overwhelming yet?  Well, take a deep breath.  Becoming an icon doesn’t happen overnight and will take consistency and a daily committment to provide the best and most innovative service to your clients.

Recently, entrepreneur.com gave five great tips that will help boost you to that iconic level.  Of course, I’ve modified them to make them real estate specific, so take a few minutes to review how you can take your business to the next level!

1. Start blogging- Blogging is a great way to establish yourself as an expert.  You can easily provide pertinent information about your real estate market, your listings, home buying or selling tips and even community events.  Giving people the information they want about the real estate market, their home and the community will keep them coming back for more.  The more you blog on a consistent basis, the more people will begin to see you as a trusted expert in your field and in your community.

2. Market yourself- In being your own brand, marketing is key to your success.  While you may not feel comfortable with self-promotion; it’s really the only way to market your business since you are your business.  Marketing your services, your field of expertise, even your awards or recognitions allows others to get to know you, your values and what you will be able to do for them.  This is just another way to establish yourself as an expert and give an open door to becoming an icon.  Exposure brings recognition, which breeds familiarity and establishes trust.  It’s just how our minds work!

A great way for real estate agents to do this is through a one sheet marketing approach.  We’ve created this for a few of our clients and its been a huge success!  A one sheet is simply a sheet of paper that gives a brief synopsis of who you are, your certifications, area of service, expertise or anything else you want to highlight about you and your business.  They’re perfect for leaving at an open house, giving to potential clients and handing out with your marketing presentation.

3. Create Compelling Content- Whether you’re blogging, writing a buyer or seller page for your website or creating your print marketing material; your content should be compelling.  That means sentence structure and grammar should be impeccable and the topics or advice you are presenting should be up to date and interesting.  Visitors to your website or blog will know when something’s just been thrown on a page, and that will send the message that you are okay with doing the minimum just to get it done.  Why not show how much you care about your business and your customer service ethics through great content?  It will help set the tone for your entire business.

4. Create Products- Did you know that real estate agents can have products too?  While you’re not trying to sell them to make a profit, having products or tools to provide for your clients can help set you apart. Giving your client or potential clients something extra is unexpected, sets you apart and establishes yourself even more as an expert.

5. Take it to the Next Level– Now that you’re seen as an expert in your community, boost yourself to icon by taking it up a notch.  If you’re passionate about selling homes or helping people avoid foreclosure; do all you can to grow in your area of expertise.  Begin to register yourself as an expert on real estate sites or other marketing avenues and network, network, network! Credibility is a key component to being viewed as a leader and expert. Real estate conventions are always looking for speakers in a specific field and the more you put yourself out there, the more likely you are to have opportunities on a national level. Imagine how sought after you’ll be in your community after receiving national recognition!

I know this may seem like a lot to take in and a lot of hard work; and it is!  Reaching your goals will take time, dedication and a focus on the end results.  Remember, taking it a day at a time is key!  You won’t become an icon, or even seen as a real estate expert overnight, but you’ll be encouraged by those daily “wins” and as you see your business begin to grow.

There are certain actions that can be taken and if interested, contact me, I recently launched a mentorship program limited to only a handful of individuals and I can guarantee recognition in basically any syndication including FOX, CNBC, ABC, MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and the list goes on. Credibility is a key component to being viewed as a leader and expert. As in doing anything, there is a process to it. Just like there is a process to become a doctor or lawyer. This will give you a head start, but I can show you exactly how to be one of the leading experts in your area, guaranteed. Just contact me for details. Be blessed and make it a productive day!

Mortgage Rates Rise Slightly Heading Into The Weekend


After two days of significant improvements, Mortgage Rates took a measured step back today.  Best-Execution rates rose about an eighth of a point, but in some cases, your rate may not have changed at all today-merely your closing cost quote (temporary caveat that we’ll probably repeat a few more times):

Please keep in mind that lenders simply cannot move mortgage rates lower at the same pace as a rapid rally in Benchmark Treasuries.  Although you might hear talking heads on TV or read articles saying that mortgage rates are tied to Treasuries, THEY ARE NOT, and you’ll be perennially frustrated if you expect them to be.  We explained that in greater detail earlier in the month:(Why aren’t rates getting lower as fast as Treasuries). 

Today’s Rates:  The current market is in a state of flux at the moment and mortgage rates moving up and down around ALL TIME LOWS.  BestExecution 30yr Fixed rates were mostly near 3.875% today, with a higher than normal degree of variation around there.  FHA/VA deals are in a bit of a predicament that’s keeping them blocked off below 3.75% (there’s no secondary market for rates any lower than that right now!).  For similar reasons, 15 year fixed conventional loans may be stuck at 3.25%.  5 year ARMS remain near 3.125%, but with variations from lender to lender.

GUIDANCE:  Yesterday’s guidance was really excellent.  As feared, we saw plenty of “pipeline control” price changes among lenders, and that was exacerbated today by weakness in the bond market.  Strategically (longer term, bigger picture), locking when the Best-Execution rate is 3.875% makes a ton of sense.  Even on a shorter term outlook, the broader shift that’s taken place behind the scenes in the secondary mortgage market suggests a range of rates between 3.75 and 4.125.  So right now it’s leaning slightly to the more aggressive side.  If there was any better time in history to lock a loan than today, it was yesterday.  We don’t know what sort of opportunities will be available next week, and although we think rates will be relatively low for a while, we’re not sure it’s worth the risk to float for marginal gains when we’re only an eighth or two away from some of the most aggressive offers yesterday (and consequently, of all-time).

Fannie Mae: September Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis


Leading indicators for home sales point to subdued housing demand. Respondents to the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey indicate a continued shift of sentiment toward renting and away from ownership, at least in the near term. In the second quarter, 26 percent of Americans were worried about their job stability. When combined with the 9 percent of unemployed households, more than a third of the potential workforce was worried about their employment status – hardly a strong support for housing demand.

After rising for two consecutive months, pending home sales (contract signings of existing homes) fell in July, which bodes poorly for existing home sales in August and September. Pending home sales generally lead the existing home sales data by one or two months. However, the link between contract signings and closings has weakened lately such that the gains in pending home sales in recent months have not materialized into contract signings. Low appraisals compared to contract prices and concerns about the economy may have led to contract cancellations and delays. Also, some contracts have had to be cancelled because the potential buyers could not sell their current homes.

September Economic Developments
September Economic Forecast
September Housing Forecast

To Build Or Not To Build? How A Strategic Return To The Sector Could Yield Huge Returns For The Savvy Investor.


Construction works at a prefabricated house

. . . . a tough question in light of today’s stubborn economic recovery.  Even though we’ve spotted a few bright spots on the economic horizon (a shrinking foreclosure rate, a growing cash-investor class taking advantage of bargain distressed property prices, rising values of existing commercial properties), tepid job growth and an inventory of unsold REOs seem to negate any optimism. Arguably, the building industry has suffered as much as any other sector. Construction of new homes, one key indicator of economic health, posted its largest decline in the past few decades and finds itself struggling with rising material costs in an environment not conducive to raising prices to cover costs. While conventional wisdom suggests that investors should distance themselves from the building and construction industry, first impressions could be misleading. A strategic return to the sector could yield great returns for the smart investor. The secret lies in pinpointing specific demand and if enough demand exists to drive growth. UCLA’s Anderson School of Business’ recent findings echo findings from a number of other sources indicating a consumer “shift” is occurring to affordable rental units from the traditional single family home. Higher down payment requirements, tight credit and other factors make renting a more practical choice for current homeowners and the growing segment of “Echo Boomers” – defined as children of Baby Boomers born between 1975 and 2000. Fannie Mae estimates that the currently available 15.2 million rental units will not meet the growing demand for affordable housing for this group in the future. Similarly, on retail and office market fronts, analysts predict shortages in retail office spaces as businesses expand. While the fate of the traditional single-family home may be unclear at the present time, the need for affordable apartments and commercial square footage is increasing. Demand exists. The economic downturn crippled the construction industry. The credit vacuum created by the voluntary exit of lenders and the FDIC shutdown of banks with non-performing construction loans brought building to a virtual halt. New project starts diminished and ongoing developments that lost financing stalled. These factors combined to stymie the supply of units brought to market. Now that demand is showing signs of returning, some mothballed projects may begin to make sense at today’s prices. The initial infrastructure work leading up to construction (permits, environmental studies, plans, etc.) that comprise the up-front costs and take years to complete, new investors can now obtain for pennies on the dollar. Private equity funds and large banks are once again injecting new capital into projects. Activity is increasing at construction sites nationwide to meet projected demand, providing much-needed jobs to their immediate communities. We recently completed a development project that was able to sell at attractive current levels based on the fact that we saved on both the land cost as well as benefited from existing infrastructure. This in addition to the short time frame from investment to repayment, made the difference. The key factor is to begin in the areas that were located within good markets and avoid those areas that were on the outer rim of the growth pattern.  If the project is well located it should achieve a fair return using very conservative projections. Is it time to build again? The answer depends on finding the right location at the right price at the right time when land is cheap and the up-front costs have already been absorbed by previous investors. The heavily discounted infrastructure and approvals, in my opinion, are the key elements.

The Economic News is NOT All Bad…


Seal of the U.S. government's Small Business A...

Granted, the headlines are not pretty.  Our government seems committed to making the greatest number of mistakes possible, but I am here to tell you that underneath all of that, small businesses are really making things happen!  This is a VERY good thing.

At McDevitt Capital, we are busier than we ever have been, and since most of my loans are to small businesses, this is a positive for the economy. Many of the CDC’s I know are also having very good years (CDC’s are companies that administer the seconds on SBA 504 loans). If the SBA is busy, then again, small businesses are working. There is almost a mini-boom happening in franchising right now. It seems like every franchise out there is very busy which again, means new businesses are starting. This means jobs are being created. I am also seeing another big trend-a lot of boomers are quitting corporate America for good, cashing out or rolling over their IRA’s and starting their own businesses. Now financial planners may cringe at that point, but the owners I speak to are putting it this way, “These large companies I have invested in don’t seem to be very “with it” and with so many risks, I feel better controlling my own destiny”.

I say all of this not to debate investment strategy but to share what I am seeing in the front lines, in the trenches of this economic battle. There are warriors out there, small business men and women and they are cautious, but they are determined and they are not backing down. As a small business owner myself, I acknowledge that there are dangers ahead, not the least of which is our Government’s essential bankruptcy, but I also see opportunities everywhere and I am attacking those opportunities because sometimes, the best defense is a strong offense and I am not alone.

So take what you hear on the news with a grain of salt and know that there are people fighting the good fight. Maybe you are one of us. Take heart!  Because behind the news, on every street corner, the fight goes on. And these warriors will find a way to win. Opportunities abound today, in spite of or possibly because of, the broader economic news. Properties are cheap, rates are low, and there are some people doing very well. Those stories are all around you and THAT is what will keep America going. Entrepreneurship lives on and with it, lies the hope of this economy. We are America, and we are not dead yet!

Have a great weekend!

Michael McDevitt

P.S. If you know a small business owner or investor cheer them on!  If they need money, make sure to let them know about me. My former mentor and commercial partner is closing more commercial loans than anyone in the country and we are successfully bringing capital from around the country to the small business owner or investor. I can pay referral fees as well! Give me a call today at 888.950.9910 Ext.100!

Fed: Risk of Recession “Quite Low”


Modern-day meeting of the Federal Open Market ...

According to William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the risk of a double-dip recession is still quite low.

Dudley said that only some of the the restraints on growth, such as high oil prices and Japan‘s earthquake in the first half of the year, can be considered temporary.

“The risks have risen a little bit, but I think we very much still expect the economy to recover. We expect … growth to be significantly firmer than it was during the first half of the year,” he said. “But obviously there is some concern.

The central bank‘s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the unprecedented step last week of promising to keep interest rates near zero for a set period of time—at least until mid-2013. The Fed also said it was weighing other options to help strengthen a weak recovery.

Dudley said that market interest rates fell after the announcement, “which should help provide some additional support for economic activity and jobs.” The president of the New York Fed has a permanent voting position on the FOMC and plays a prominent role within the U.S. central bank.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +21 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday.  We did pull back from our our best levels of 2011 which occurred in the middle of the week.  The gains were primarily due to much weaker than expected economic news as well as continued concern over weakness in Europe.

HomeSteps Provides Condominium Buyers with Limited Time Offer


HomeSteps, the real estate sales unit of Freddie Mac, is now offering a special limited time offer of $1,500 to help condominium buyers pay for future associates dues.

The “condo cash” offer is available to buyers who submit offers on a property between Aug. 15 and Nov. 15. Escrows have to be closed on or before Dec. 30 to be eligible for this offer.

HomeSteps’ condo cash offer can only be used on HomeSteps homes that have been on the market for at least 120 days and sold to owner-occupant buyers. The offer is not valid on HomeSteps condominiums purchased through auction, sealed bids, bulk sales or in areas where such offers are prohibited by law.

Some of the condominiums will come with a two-year home protection warranty that covers electrical, plumbing, air conditioning, heating and other major systems and appliances. Home Protect also provides discounts of up to 30% on the purchase of appliances.

Mortgage Delinquency Rates Decline:


You would think by the barrage of negative news reports that just about every other home was going into foreclosure.  Certainly this is not the case. In fact, the housing market has stabilized in the past six months.  The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the percentage of homeowners that were behind at least one monthly payment fell from 9.1% in the third quarter to 8.2% in the fourth quarter.  Also, the 2010 delinquency rate fell from over 10% in the beginning of the year to 8.2% at the end of the year.

The 2% drop in mortgage delinquencies follows the recent drop in the Unemployment Rate and the steady increase in Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence.  These are significant signs that the housing market is closing in on a true market equilibrium.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +39 basis points last week which caused 30 year fixed rates to move lower after reaching their highest levels of 2011 in the prior week. The economic data such as PPI and CPI showed inflationary pressures that consumers pay  – which is usually bad for mortgage rates. But the geo-political concerns over continued tensions in the Middle East, specifically the news stories of the Iranian War Ships requesting access to the Suez Canal, caused traders to move their funds into the safety of bonds which temporarily helped mortgage rates.